$100 a month for 30, 45 and 50 years: the S&P 500, Treasury bills, bonds, REITs, gold and Berkshire against inflation

Put $100 into each of six choices on the last trading day of every month, reinvest every dividend and interest payment, and look at the result at the October 22, 2026 close. The six choices are three-month Treasury bills, bonds, the S&P 500, real estate investment trusts (REITs), gold and Berkshire Hathaway. A seventh line shows inflation: what the same $100 contributions would have to be worth today to buy what they bought on the day they were made. Anything below that line lost purchasing power.

30 years: $36,000 contributed

From October 1996 to September 2026 there were 360 contributions, $36,000 in all. This window uses things an investor could actually buy, with their fees: the SPY ETF, Vanguard’s REIT index fund (VGSIX), Vanguard’s Total Bond Market index fund (VBMFX) and Berkshire’s B shares, which pay no dividend.

Berkshire, the S&P 500 and gold finished close together, and the order is recent. On September 30, 2026 the S&P 500 version led with $242,929, ahead of gold at $231,091 and Berkshire at $227,359; Berkshire’s B shares then rose 9.8% to October 22. At the end of 2025 gold was in front. First place changed hands 38 times in the 30 years. Of the 361 points measured (every month-end plus October 22), the REIT fund led at 120, Berkshire at 108, gold at 91 — including every month-end from November 2007 to April 2014 — and the S&P 500 at 37.

Treasury bills, the closest thing here to cash, ended $6,535 below the inflation line: $36,000 kept in three-month bills bought less in 2026 than it did when it was saved. The bond fund ended $1,533 above it, after falling 17.5% from July 2020 to October 2022 as interest rates rose, a loss it had not made back by September 2026.

2008 hit all of them except cash and gold

Measured from month-end to month-end, the S&P 500 fell 50.8% from October 2007 to February 2009, Berkshire 45.9% from December 2007 and the REIT fund 68.3% from January 2007. The S&P 500 was back at its old high by March 2012, the REIT fund by June 2012 and Berkshire by January 2013. Gold’s worst stretch came later: its monthly average fell 39.3% from September 2011 to December 2015 and did not return to the 2011 level until July 2020.

50 years: $60,000 contributed

From October 1976 the windows use indexes, which have no fees: the S&P 500 with dividends, the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs index and an estimated 10-year Treasury bond, rebuilt from yields because no bond fund goes back that far. Berkshire is left out, because its daily price history starts in March 1980.

Over 50 years REITs led for longer than stocks: at 322 of the 601 points measured, against 220 for the S&P 500, which has been in front since August 2022. The REIT line never fell below the inflation line. Treasury bills ended $12,631 above it, largely thanks to the years from 1979 to 1982, when they paid between 10% and 15% a year. Gold spent 235 month-ends below the inflation line, the last in December 2005: its monthly average fell 62.1% from January 1980 to July 1999.

45 years, to include Berkshire

Starting in October 1981, 540 contributions of $100, $54,000 in all, grew to $6.36 million in Berkshire (one class A share divided by 1,500, the value of a B share), against $1.50 million in the S&P 500, $820,000 in REITs and $411,000 in gold. Berkshire was in first place at 530 of the 541 points measured. Its pace has slowed, though: 17.9% a year over 45 years, 11.4% over 30 years and 10.8% over 20 years, against 12.3%, 10.2% and 11.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods.

The answer depends on the window. Over the last five years gold returned 18.0% a year and REITs 1.7%; over 50 years the S&P 500 returned 11.9% and gold 7.4%. Between 1977 and 2025 gold had 18 down years out of 49, the S&P 500 nine and REITs nine.

How the numbers were built and checked. The S&P 500 index with dividends matches the yearly figures in Berkshire Hathaway’s 2025 shareholder letter within 0.10 percentage point in every year from 1977 to 2025, and Berkshire’s share price matches the letter within 0.05 point from 1981. Gold is the World Bank’s monthly average London price, so purchases are at the month’s average; the October 22 value uses the front gold futures contract, which ran about 1% above the World Bank average in September 2026. Treasury bills earn the previous month’s average three-month rate. The 10-year Treasury series is an estimate: a bond bought at par each month-end and sold a month later at the new yield; it ended 13% below the IEF Treasury fund from 2002 to 2026 and 10% above Aswath Damodaran’s yearly series from 1977 to 2025. October 2025 consumer prices were never published because of the government shutdown, so that month is the geometric average of September and November.

The figures are before taxes and trading costs. REITs are listed real estate companies, not a house: a national home price index (S&P Cotality Case-Shiller) rose about four times from October 1996 to July 2026, but that is price alone, without rent or upkeep, and no one can buy $100 of a house every month. Berkshire is a single company picked knowing how it turned out; the S&P 500 holds 500. This is a description of what happened, not a forecast and not investment advice.