Caterpillar vs. Deere: data-center power on one side, the bottom of the farm cycle on the other

Caterpillar and Deere are the classic pair of U.S. heavy-equipment makers — construction, mining and energy on one side, agriculture on the other. In 2026 their filings describe opposite moments. Caterpillar reported the first quarter in its history above $20 billion of revenue, with power-generation sales rising “primarily in data center applications.” Deere says it expects 2026 to “mark the bottom of the current ag equipment cycle.” At the October 2, 2026 close, Caterpillar was worth $388.6 billion and Deere $185.2 billion.

Deere’s fiscal year ends on the Sunday closest to the end of October. Its fiscal 2025 ran from October 28, 2024 to November 2, 2025 and had 53 weeks; Caterpillar’s 2025 is the calendar year.

Two businesses, two directions

Caterpillar’s 2025 revenue was the highest of its 2008–2025 series. Its Power & Energy segment — engines, turbines and generators — became the largest, at 40.2% of revenue, after growing 12.7%. In the second quarter of 2026, revenue rose 24.0% to $20.5 billion and profit 64.9%.

Deere’s fiscal 2025 went the other way. Volumes of large agricultural machines fell 30% in the U.S. and Canada while rising 22% in Brazil, and U.S. revenue fell 20.7%. The 10-K describes fewer machines sold, more discounting and more customer defaults. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue grew 4.9% and profit 7.0%, and the company expects fiscal 2026 net income of $4.75 billion to $5.00 billion, against $5.03 billion in fiscal 2025. Both companies also own a financing arm — Cat Financial (6% of Caterpillar’s revenue) and John Deere Financial (13% of Deere’s) — so part of their revenue is interest on equipment loans.

Tariffs: a cost in 2025, a refund in 2026

Caterpillar says its 2025 profit fell “mainly due to unfavorable manufacturing costs,” which “largely reflected the impact of higher tariffs.” Deere put the direct cost of tariffs at about $600 million in fiscal 2025. In 2026 part of that came back: Caterpillar booked $392 million of expected tariff refunds in the second quarter (before taxes), and Deere $382 million over the first nine months of its fiscal year. Some of the recent jump in profit is therefore a refund, not operating growth.

Deere’s high P/E has a similar explanation. Its last-twelve-months profit, $4.87 billion, is less than half its peak in the series, $10.17 billion in fiscal 2023, so the multiple is high partly because earnings are depressed.

Order books that measure different things

Caterpillar’s backlog of firm orders reached $72.1 billion on June 30, 2026, up from $30.0 billion at the end of 2024; the largest increase was in Power & Energy. Before 2025, its highest year-end backlog since 2008 was $30.4 billion, in 2022. Deere’s backlog was $9.7 billion at the end of fiscal 2025, but it counts only machine orders, and its agricultural backlog peaks in the middle of the year — it fell from $14.8 billion in 2021 to $5.9 billion in 2025. A ratio is more comparable than the raw figures: Caterpillar’s 2025 backlog equaled 0.76 years of revenue, Deere’s 0.21.

Dividends

Caterpillar has paid a dividend every year since its founding, quarterly since 1933, and says it has paid “higher annual dividends to shareholders for 32 consecutive years.” Our count of annual totals matches: 32 years, from 1994 to 2025. (By the largest quarterly payment of each year the count would be only five, because Caterpillar did not raise the quarterly amount in 2016 or 2020.) Deere’s annual total has risen for five years, 2021–2025; its quarterly payment has been $1.62 since December 2024, which is not a cut.

$1,000 over 5, 10 and 20 years

Both beat the S&P 500 in every window. Over twenty years Deere was ahead in 237 of 240 months; Caterpillar led only from April to June 2026, and Deere was back in front in July. Over ten years Deere led until August 2025, and Caterpillar has been ahead since September 2025. Caterpillar’s stock was up 72.3% in the twelve months to October 2, but 20.6% below its June 30, 2026 high of $1,064.90; its filings in that period do not explain the drop. Deere was up 48.8% and 3.2% below its high.

Owners and insiders

The largest holder of both among the 38 managers this site tracks is the Gates Foundation Trust, whose portfolio is managed by Cascade rather than by Bill Gates personally. It held 11.26 million Caterpillar shares from 2016 to 2020 and has 6.35 million today; in Deere it has held 3.56 million shares since late 2023. Its Caterpillar stake was worth $6.77 billion at the June 30 high, and $5.37 billion at the October 2 price. Tom Gayner of Markel holds both.

Insider activity in the twelve months to early October 2026 differed sharply. At Caterpillar, one director, David MacLennan, bought $0.39 million of stock; executives sold $223.8 million without a 10b5-1 plan, of which $220.7 million appeared on the same forms as option exercises, led by group president Bob De Lange ($78.7 million) and chief executive Joe Creed ($26.2 million in August 2026). At Deere, nobody bought, and all 27 sales — $55.9 million by three executives, including $26.35 million by chief executive John May — were made under 10b5-1 plans.

Both companies changed chief financial officer on May 1, 2026: Kyle Epley at Caterpillar and Brent Norwood at Deere. Daily data is on the Caterpillar and Deere pages. Not investment advice.